Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.89 – 366.01

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

235 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.4 ±10.7

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 42.24Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 1.06Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 58.59Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.5 ±8.7

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 30.02Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 126.66Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 209.33Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 11214, 6429

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 11214, 6429

Auto

34.7 29%

Teleop

53.9 46%

Endgame

29.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 614, 4766, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

366 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 614, 4766, 4322

Auto

55.0 16%

Teleop

201.2 58%

Endgame

90.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.49 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score101.9pts

Blue projected score366pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -264.1
Score range: 27–441
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 414.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.4Season APEX622.5

34.7Auto55

53.9Teleop201.2

29.7Endgame90.3

72Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	66
teleop	86	226
endgame	86	82
foul	0	0
total	235	374

Result

Final score

235 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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