Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

450.58 – 446.95

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 188.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 650.1 ±11

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 215.79Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 98.36Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 136.43Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.8 ±11

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 274.9Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 42.82Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 129.23Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5913, 6487, 3931

/ 100 compat

Projected

450.6 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5913, 6487, 3931

Auto

92.0 20%

Teleop

262.8 58%

Endgame

101.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 111, 2635, 6985

/ 100 compat

Projected

446.9 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 111, 2635, 6985

Auto

59.5 13%

Teleop

265.0 60%

Endgame

117.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score450.6pts

Blue projected score446.9pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.6
Score range: 372–526
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 416.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

650.1Season APEX569.8

92Auto59.5

262.8Teleop265

101.2Endgame117.4

94Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	59
teleop	149	107
endgame	50	49
foul	10	15
total	290	230

Result

Final score

290 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 188.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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