Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

330.93 – 372.74

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

416 – 325

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560.9 ±10.5

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 180.5Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX -2.98Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 153.41Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.8 ±9.3

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 69.35Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 134.1Rank 34Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 169.29Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9572, 5705, 2393

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.9 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9572, 5705, 2393

Auto

71.4 22%

Teleop

151.7 47%

Endgame

96.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6911, 51, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.7 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 6911, 51, 2590

Auto

82.6 22%

Teleop

203.1 54%

Endgame

87.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score330.9pts

Blue projected score372.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.8
Score range: 256–448
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 741 vs event baseline 418.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560.9Season APEX654.8

71.4Auto82.6

151.7Teleop203.1

96.6Endgame87.6

139Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	84
teleop	229	136
endgame	90	100
foul	5	5
total	416	325

Result

Final score

416 – 325

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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