Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.52 – 329.57

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

279 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 82 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 708.2 ±13

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 159.46Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX -11.7Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 39.76Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.7 ±10.5

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 89.39Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 43.97Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 196.21Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 11244, 10034

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.5 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 484, 11244, 10034

Auto

28.5 19%

Teleop

90.7 59%

Endgame

34.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1403, 1816, 8159

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.6 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1403, 1816, 8159

Auto

66.7 20%

Teleop

143.8 43%

Endgame

126.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score187.5pts

Blue projected score329.6pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142
Score range: 113–405
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 418.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

708.2Season APEX693.7

28.5Auto66.7

90.7Teleop143.8

34.2Endgame126.8

102Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	110
teleop	160	211
endgame	48	76
foul	10	5
total	279	402

Result

Final score

279 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 82 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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