Qualification · Qualification 63
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
373.08 – 366.41
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
489 – 575
Prediction missed · off by 162.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 666.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 172.79Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 96.81Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 103.48Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 778.2 ±11.2
Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 101.39Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 228.78Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 36.24Rank 69Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4322, 4087, 7915
65
/ 100 compatProjected
373.1 pts
~1.7 RP (championship)
Teams: 4322, 4087, 7915
Auto
78.0 22%
Teleop
199.9 56%
Endgame
78.6 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3931, 2468, 8069
64
/ 100 compatProjected
366.4 pts
~1.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 3931, 2468, 8069
Auto
74.9 21%
Teleop
171.4 48%
Endgame
111.2 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score373.1pts
Blue projected score366.4pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 6.7
- Score range
- 291–448
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
666.7Season APEX778.2
78Auto74.9
199.9Teleop171.4
78.6Endgame111.2
145Consistency134
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 83 | 116 |
| teleop | 229 | 291 |
| endgame | 177 | 168 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 489 | 575 |
Result
Final score
489 – 575
Prediction missed · off by 162.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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