Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.93 – 495.69

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.9 ±10.5

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 42.09Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 50.64Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX -33.8Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.1 ±9.3

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 162.16Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 256.72Rank 18Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 76.81Rank 46Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 2635, 5705

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.9 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5181, 2635, 5705

Auto

31.9 40%

Teleop

31.3 40%

Endgame

16.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2582, 8229, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.7 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2582, 8229, 6665

Auto

58.3 12%

Teleop

278.9 58%

Endgame

143.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.47 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score58.9pts

Blue projected score495.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -436.8
Score range: -16–571
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 417.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.9Season APEX576.1

31.9Auto58.3

31.3Teleop278.9

16Endgame143.3

100Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	67
teleop	51	198
endgame	38	58
foul	5	15
total	117	338

Result

Final score

117 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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