Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

405.52 – 624

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

380 – 474

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.9 ±10.5

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 190.96Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 97.6Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 116.96Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 677.4 ±10.5

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 157.15Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 163.22Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 303.63Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 4655, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.5 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2590, 4655, 5653

Auto

77.2 20%

Teleop

215.4 56%

Endgame

91.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10980, 3753, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

624 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10980, 3753, 1506

Auto

95.3 16%

Teleop

327.2 54%

Endgame

179.5 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score405.5pts

Blue projected score624pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -218.5
Score range: 331–699
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 854 vs event baseline 417.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.9Season APEX677.4

77.2Auto95.3

215.4Teleop327.2

91.2Endgame179.5

160Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	51
teleop	244	294
endgame	43	129
foul	0	0
total	380	474

Result

Final score

380 – 474

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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