Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

474.92 – 350.91

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

500 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 745 ±9.8

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 158.68Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 173.2Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 143.04Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 709 ±12.9

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 188.39Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 106.37Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 56.15Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2393, 3501, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

474.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2393, 3501, 4655

Auto

87.6 19%

Teleop

282.4 60%

Endgame

100.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3937, 6985, 10034

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.9 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 3937, 6985, 10034

Auto

74.3 22%

Teleop

172.8 52%

Endgame

86.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.6 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score474.9pts

Blue projected score350.9pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124
Score range: 274–552
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 955 vs event baseline 425.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

745Season APEX709

87.6Auto74.3

282.4Teleop172.8

100.7Endgame86.4

116Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	74
teleop	317	237
endgame	92	109
foul	0	35
total	500	455

Result

Final score

500 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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