Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

541.54 – 461.82

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

305 – 355

Prediction missed · off by 171.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 737.8 ±8.1

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 191.94Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 69.85Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 279.75Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 614.9 ±11

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 96.83Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 138.15Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 226.84Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1391, 614, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

541.5 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 1391, 614, 9496

Auto

102.0 19%

Teleop

343.3 65%

Endgame

81.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6911, 4607, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.8 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6911, 4607, 1756

Auto

80.1 17%

Teleop

251.4 53%

Endgame

142.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score541.5pts

Blue projected score461.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.7
Score range: 387–617
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 417.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

737.8Season APEX614.9

102Auto80.1

343.3Teleop251.4

81.4Endgame142.6

172Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	78
teleop	141	197
endgame	89	65
foul	0	15
total	305	355

Result

Final score

305 – 355

Prediction missed · off by 171.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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