Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

491.7 – 420.19

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

658 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 203.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 732.6 ±10.5

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 64.16Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 150.82Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 276.72Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 657 ±11.9

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 99.96Rank 20Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 85.56Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 234.67Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6487, 2491, 7415

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.7 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 6487, 2491, 7415

Auto

78.5 17%

Teleop

228.2 50%

Endgame

148.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11417, 10034, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.2 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 11417, 10034, 8119

Auto

62.6 16%

Teleop

210.4 54%

Endgame

113.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score491.7pts

Blue projected score420.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.5
Score range: 344–568
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 837 vs event baseline 422.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

732.6Season APEX657

78.5Auto62.6

228.2Teleop210.4

148Endgame113.9

127Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	145	46
teleop	361	60
endgame	152	38
foul	0	35
total	658	179

Result

Final score

658 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 203.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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