Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

501.73 – 543.32

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 350

Prediction missed · off by 162.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 762.6 ±9.9

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 236.84Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 187.4Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 77.49Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 769.3 ±13.1

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 169.71Rank 34Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 269.89Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 103.72Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2468, 484, 7840

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.7 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2468, 484, 7840

Auto

92.9 18%

Teleop

249.2 50%

Endgame

160.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 51, 2231, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

543.3 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 51, 2231, 6201

Auto

152.2 27%

Teleop

279.8 50%

Endgame

124.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score501.7pts

Blue projected score543.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: 426–619
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 720 vs event baseline 424.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

762.6Season APEX769.3

92.9Auto152.2

249.2Teleop279.8

160.6Endgame124.8

201Consistency178

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	75
teleop	221	229
endgame	82	46
foul	0	0
total	370	350

Result

Final score

370 – 350

Prediction missed · off by 162.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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