Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

490.51 – 220.33

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

515 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 807.8 ±9.3

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 119.13Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 107.11Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 264.27Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 797.2 ±12.4

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 150.41Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 54.29Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 15.63Rank 69Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2054, 7183, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

490.5 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2054, 7183, 3501

Auto

56.5 11%

Teleop

296.2 60%

Endgame

140.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4469, 3544, 8069

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.3 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4469, 3544, 8069

Auto

38.5 17%

Teleop

92.9 42%

Endgame

91.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.91 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score490.5pts

Blue projected score220.3pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 270.2
Score range: 144–567
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 818 vs event baseline 424.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

807.8Season APEX797.2

56.5Auto38.5

296.2Teleop92.9

140.3Endgame91.9

184Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	73
teleop	329	143
endgame	105	87
foul	5	0
total	515	303

Result

Final score

515 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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