Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

445.93 – 390.83

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

599 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 105.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.2 ±9.8

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 68.23Rank 68Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 185.59Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 192.11Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592.4 ±11.6

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 62.77Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 139.81Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 188.25Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 16, 3937, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.9 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 16, 3937, 5895

Auto

58.3 14%

Teleop

263.6 64%

Endgame

87.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1816, 6985, 4020

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.8 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1816, 6985, 4020

Auto

82.5 22%

Teleop

164.5 45%

Endgame

120.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score445.9pts

Blue projected score390.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.1
Score range: 315–522
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 932 vs event baseline 420.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.2Season APEX592.4

58.3Auto82.5

263.6Teleop164.5

87.2Endgame120.5

55Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	86
teleop	316	155
endgame	187	92
foul	15	0
total	599	333

Result

Final score

599 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 105.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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