Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

453.61 – 351.12

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

467 – 446

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 710.3 ±9.8

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 135.7Rank 39Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 82Rank 64Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 235.91Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 640.9 ±10.5

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 115.99Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 175.04Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 60.09Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2556, 364, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

453.6 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2556, 364, 2468

Auto

110.0 24%

Teleop

246.8 55%

Endgame

94.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4607, 8119, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.1 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4607, 8119, 4125

Auto

60.7 18%

Teleop

167.1 49%

Endgame

111.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score453.6pts

Blue projected score351.1pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.5
Score range: 274–531
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 913 vs event baseline 425.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

710.3Season APEX640.9

110Auto60.7

246.8Teleop167.1

94Endgame111

128Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	75
teleop	256	200
endgame	102	166
foul	0	5
total	467	446

Result

Final score

467 – 446

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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