Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

607.73 – 355.84

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

437 – 686

Prediction missed · off by 250.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 725.6 ±9.3

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 268.66Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 203.6Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 135.47Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 734.9 ±8.1

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 58.34Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 188.96Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 108.54Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8159, 4322, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

607.7 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 8159, 4322, 8858

Auto

102.8 18%

Teleop

296.4 51%

Endgame

181.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4766, 9496, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.8 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4766, 9496, 2590

Auto

56.1 16%

Teleop

195.6 54%

Endgame

108.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score607.7pts

Blue projected score355.8pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 251.9
Score range: 280–684
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1123 vs event baseline 421.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

725.6Season APEX734.9

102.8Auto56.1

296.4Teleop195.6

181.7Endgame108.1

141Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	150
teleop	240	365
endgame	86	131
foul	10	40
total	437	686

Result

Final score

437 – 686

Prediction missed · off by 250.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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