Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

274.44 – 494.73

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.9 ±11.9

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 79.52Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 146.08Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 48.84Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 903.4 ±12.7

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 179.07Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 117.95Rank 20Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 197.71Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6911, 10034, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.4 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6911, 10034, 5181

Auto

32.1 14%

Teleop

145.9 65%

Endgame

46.7 21%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1690, 11417, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

494.7 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1690, 11417, 449

Auto

98.3 21%

Teleop

285.0 61%

Endgame

83.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score274.4pts

Blue projected score494.7pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -220.3
Score range: 198–571
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 424.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.9Season APEX903.4

32.1Auto98.3

145.9Teleop285

46.7Endgame83.6

244Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	106
teleop	63	222
endgame	25	95
foul	15	0
total	140	423

Result

Final score

140 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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