Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.57 – 182.71

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 749.2 ±9.8

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 119.13Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 89.39Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 190.05Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.5 ±9.8

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 65.5Rank 46Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 6.35Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 110.86Rank 39Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3931, 4655, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.6 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3931, 4655, 2813

Auto

82.0 20%

Teleop

243.6 59%

Endgame

90.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 3082, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6665, 3082, 2556

Auto

45.2 25%

Teleop

112.5 62%

Endgame

24.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score398.6pts

Blue projected score182.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 215.9
Score range: 106–476
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 427.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

749.2Season APEX520.5

82Auto45.2

243.6Teleop112.5

90.5Endgame24

114Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	35
teleop	179	133
endgame	56	71
foul	35	25
total	353	264

Result

Final score

353 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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