Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

586.65 – 256.99

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

621 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 108.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 811 ±8.7

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 194.1Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 241.1Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 151.45Rank 34Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 744.6 ±11.2

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 44.88Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 172.05Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 40.06Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 7415, 51

/ 100 compat

Projected

586.7 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 484, 7415, 51

Auto

125.5 22%

Teleop

313.1 54%

Endgame

137.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6429, 111, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

257 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6429, 111, 4450

Auto

16.7 7%

Teleop

158.1 63%

Endgame

74.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score586.7pts

Blue projected score257pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 329.7
Score range: 181–663
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1060 vs event baseline 424.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

811Season APEX744.6

125.5Auto16.7

313.1Teleop158.1

137.4Endgame74.7

195Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	132	90
teleop	340	221
endgame	134	128
foul	15	0
total	621	439

Result

Final score

621 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 108.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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