Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

352.96 – 241.39

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

461 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 152.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 644.3 ±9.3

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 122.16Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 173.03Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 57.77Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 715.8 ±10.7

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 239.49Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 9.61Rank 50Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX -7.71Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2582, 5913, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

353 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2582, 5913, 614

Auto

81.0 23%

Teleop

205.2 58%

Endgame

68.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2468, 10991, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.4 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2468, 10991, 3544

Auto

76.9 31%

Teleop

118.1 48%

Endgame

49.7 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score353pts

Blue projected score241.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.6
Score range: 165–429
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 899 vs event baseline 424.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

644.3Season APEX715.8

81Auto76.9

205.2Teleop118.1

68.5Endgame49.7

211Consistency199

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	115	92
teleop	297	205
endgame	49	141
foul	0	0
total	461	438

Result

Final score

461 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 152.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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