Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.9 – 293.82

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 136 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.9 ±9.9

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX -50.76Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 24.16Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 102.5Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.2 ±10.4

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 106.07Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 108.4Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 79.35Rank 64Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11214, 1816, 1023

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.9 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 11214, 1816, 1023

Auto

33.5 48%

Teleop

11.0 16%

Endgame

24.6 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2393, 4087, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.8 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2393, 4087, 364

Auto

72.2 25%

Teleop

194.8 67%

Endgame

23.0 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score75.9pts

Blue projected score293.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -217.9
Score range: -1–371
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 428.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.9Season APEX630.2

33.5Auto72.2

11Teleop194.8

24.6Endgame23

230Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	70
teleop	166	137
endgame	80	57
foul	0	5
total	323	269

Result

Final score

323 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 136 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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