Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

422.89 – 464.32

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

593 – 394

Prediction missed · off by 120.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 849.6 ±13.5

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 238.95Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 110.56Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 73.38Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628.2 ±9.8

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 197.07Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 174.4Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 92.85Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2231, 4469, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.9 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2231, 4469, 5577

Auto

79.5 19%

Teleop

217.8 51%

Endgame

126.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9572, 2491, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.3 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 9572, 2491, 2635

Auto

93.1 20%

Teleop

238.5 52%

Endgame

124.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score422.9pts

Blue projected score464.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.4
Score range: 346–541
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 987 vs event baseline 426.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

849.6Season APEX628.2

79.5Auto93.1

217.8Teleop238.5

126.4Endgame124.6

193Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	81
teleop	337	153
endgame	130	130
foul	0	30
total	593	394

Result

Final score

593 – 394

Prediction missed · off by 120.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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