Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

370.49 – 441.39

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

357 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 598.7 ±11

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 168.7Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 122.52Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 79.27Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 752.8 ±9.3

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 122.81Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 154.64Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 163.94Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1756, 3931, 1816

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.5 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1756, 3931, 1816

Auto

67.1 19%

Teleop

205.1 57%

Endgame

84.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8858, 6528, 7183

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.4 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 8858, 6528, 7183

Auto

73.0 17%

Teleop

255.1 60%

Endgame

97.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score370.5pts

Blue projected score441.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.9
Score range: 293–518
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 791 vs event baseline 425.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

598.7Season APEX752.8

67.1Auto73

205.1Teleop255.1

84.9Endgame97.8

100Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	55
teleop	189	260
endgame	117	114
foul	5	5
total	357	434

Result

Final score

357 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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