Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

511.45 – 317.59

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

454 – 490

Prediction missed · off by 114.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 751.1 ±11.2

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 236.27Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 57.43Rank 69Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 217.75Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 720.6 ±9.9

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 106.87Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 145Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 65.72Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8119, 8069, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

511.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 8119, 8069, 3937

Auto

52.2 10%

Teleop

257.7 51%

Endgame

197.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5653, 5895, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.6 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 5653, 5895, 1403

Auto

48.7 16%

Teleop

218.2 73%

Endgame

33.3 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score511.5pts

Blue projected score317.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.9
Score range: 243–586
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 944 vs event baseline 419.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

751.1Season APEX720.6

52.2Auto48.7

257.7Teleop218.2

197.3Endgame33.3

115Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	82
teleop	241	279
endgame	136	129
foul	0	0
total	454	490

Result

Final score

454 – 490

Prediction missed · off by 114.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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