Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.05 – 354.83

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

502 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 169.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 729.2 ±8.7

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 155.78Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 135.74Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 8.53Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 711.5 ±11.9

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 101.51Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 250.24Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 3.08Rank 68Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6528, 2813, 4766

/ 100 compat

Projected

300 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 6528, 2813, 4766

Auto

42.2 14%

Teleop

170.1 57%

Endgame

83.6 28%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10034, 1506, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 10034, 1506, 16

Auto

73.5 22%

Teleop

179.1 54%

Endgame

76.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score300pts

Blue projected score354.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.8
Score range: 225–430
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 994 vs event baseline 417.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

729.2Season APEX711.5

42.2Auto73.5

170.1Teleop179.1

83.6Endgame76.6

92Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	22
teleop	281	217
endgame	130	113
foul	5	140
total	502	492

Result

Final score

502 – 492

Prediction missed · off by 169.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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