Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

501.12 – 400.58

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

671 – 525

Prediction correct · off by 147.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 917.4 ±14.1

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 212.83Rank 18Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 151.25Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 137.04Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 815.1 ±9.3

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 104.28Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 167.14Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 129.16Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8229, 931, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.1 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 8229, 931, 1690

Auto

96.0 19%

Teleop

291.8 57%

Endgame

122.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7183, 2468, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.6 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 7183, 2468, 2590

Auto

48.9 12%

Teleop

221.5 54%

Endgame

141.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score501.1pts

Blue projected score400.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.5
Score range: 328–574
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1196 vs event baseline 408.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

917.4Season APEX815.1

96Auto48.9

291.8Teleop221.5

122.3Endgame141.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	140	107
teleop	351	233
endgame	175	185
foul	5	0
total	671	525

Result

Final score

671 – 525

Prediction correct · off by 147.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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