Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

438.79 – 534.93

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

212 – 477

Prediction correct · off by 142.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 654.7 ±10.7

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 256.72Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 148.42Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 33.65Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 778.6 ±9.8

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 91.67Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 193.44Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 249.82Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 5181, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

438.8 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4322, 5181, 3544

Auto

95.2 23%

Teleop

223.3 53%

Endgame

102.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4655, 111, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

534.9 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4655, 111, 484

Auto

65.7 12%

Teleop

302.1 55%

Endgame

178.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score438.8pts

Blue projected score534.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.1
Score range: 365–609
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 689 vs event baseline 409.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

654.7Season APEX778.6

95.2Auto65.7

223.3Teleop302.1

102.6Endgame178.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	60
teleop	76	297
endgame	77	110
foul	5	10
total	212	477

Result

Final score

212 – 477

Prediction correct · off by 142.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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