Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

241.82 – 278.35

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 55.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.1 ±9.3

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 154.69Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 109.57Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX -22.44Rank 50Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 624.5 ±11.2

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX -32.02Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 147.78Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 162.59Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 4125, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.8 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6201, 4125, 10991

Auto

81.7 34%

Teleop

131.0 55%

Endgame

24.3 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11244, 9572, 3931

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.4 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 11244, 9572, 3931

Auto

55.7 20%

Teleop

153.0 56%

Endgame

65.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score241.8pts

Blue projected score278.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.5
Score range: 166–354
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 420.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.1Season APEX624.5

81.7Auto55.7

131Teleop153

24.3Endgame65

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	56
teleop	86	128
endgame	29	98
foul	0	15
total	149	297

Result

Final score

149 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 55.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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