Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.03 – 606.16

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

477 – 838

Prediction correct · off by 246.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 678.2 ±9.3

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 29.22Rank 45Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 113.38Rank 34Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 73.43Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 965.7 ±8.8

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 191.98Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 256.08Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 158.1Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11242, 51, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 11242, 51, 2491

Auto

76.4 35%

Teleop

97.0 44%

Endgame

44.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7769, 1768, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

606.2 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 7769, 1768, 3937

Auto

90.3 15%

Teleop

331.5 57%

Endgame

161.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score216pts

Blue projected score606.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -390.1
Score range: 141–681
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1315 vs event baseline 415.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

678.2Season APEX965.7

76.4Auto90.3

97Teleop331.5

44.9Endgame161

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	142
teleop	230	496
endgame	152	200
foul	10	0
total	477	838

Result

Final score

477 – 838

Prediction correct · off by 246.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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