Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

291.88 – 506.16

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

426 – 563

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 649.8 ±9.8

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 133.17Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 40.11Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 118.6Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 706 ±9.3

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 162.27Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 85.43Rank 64Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 258.46Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4020, 1403, 2635

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.9 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4020, 1403, 2635

Auto

58.1 21%

Teleop

139.4 49%

Endgame

85.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1391, 364, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

506.2 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1391, 364, 1506

Auto

112.8 22%

Teleop

274.8 54%

Endgame

123.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score291.9pts

Blue projected score506.2pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -214.3
Score range: 218–580
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 989 vs event baseline 412.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

649.8Season APEX706

58.1Auto112.8

139.4Teleop274.8

85Endgame123

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	102
teleop	218	334
endgame	123	107
foul	0	20
total	426	563

Result

Final score

426 – 563

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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