Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

242.45 – 574.08

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 535

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.2 ±11

2635Lake Monsters

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 32.82Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 131.51Rank 68Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 78.12Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 935 ±10.7

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 334.34Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 175.82Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 63.92Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2635, 16, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.5 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2635, 16, 6487

Auto

32.0 15%

Teleop

124.5 58%

Endgame

58.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7769, 449, 6429

/ 100 compat

Projected

574.1 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 7769, 449, 6429

Auto

116.1 21%

Teleop

332.1 59%

Endgame

116.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score242.5pts

Blue projected score574.1pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -331.6
Score range: 165–651
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 425.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.2Season APEX935

32Auto116.1

124.5Teleop332.1

58Endgame116.3

87Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	82
teleop	113	359
endgame	18	64
foul	0	30
total	146	535

Result

Final score

146 – 535

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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