Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

476.35 – 215.42

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

471 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 3.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 815 ±14

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 232.5Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 143.79Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 100.06Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.2 ±10.5

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 141.41Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 42.5Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 31.51Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2231, 2054, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.4 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2231, 2054, 4607

Auto

88.9 18%

Teleop

268.6 56%

Endgame

126.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5895, 3082, 1816

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.4 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 5895, 3082, 1816

Auto

48.0 23%

Teleop

106.7 50%

Endgame

57.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score476.4pts

Blue projected score215.4pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 260.9
Score range: 140–551
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 415.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

815Season APEX553.2

88.9Auto48

268.6Teleop106.7

126.1Endgame57.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	142	59
teleop	223	104
endgame	106	24
foul	0	30
total	471	217

Result

Final score

471 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 3.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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