Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.23 – 220.99

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

259 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.7 ±11.7

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 156.26Rank 39Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 50.85Rank 69Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 134.12Rank 32Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 560.9 ±9.8

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 128.58Rank 20Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX -16.44Rank 68Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 108.85Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2556, 8069, 3243

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.2 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2556, 8069, 3243

Auto

63.9 19%

Teleop

180.6 53%

Endgame

93.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11417, 16, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

221 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 11417, 16, 614

Auto

41.8 19%

Teleop

142.5 66%

Endgame

31.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score341.2pts

Blue projected score221pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.2
Score range: 146–416
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 417.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

672.7Season APEX560.9

63.9Auto41.8

180.6Teleop142.5

93.3Endgame31.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	37
teleop	137	131
endgame	47	56
foul	5	35
total	259	259

Result

Final score

259 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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