Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

475.85 – 338.01

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

335 – 442

Prediction missed · off by 122.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.6 ±12.2

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 141.34Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 155.19Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 179.32Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628.1 ±9.9

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 33.52Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 199.31Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 105.18Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6429, 5653, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

475.9 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6429, 5653, 1756

Auto

63.4 14%

Teleop

300.8 65%

Endgame

96.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5705, 3501, 1023

/ 100 compat

Projected

338 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 5705, 3501, 1023

Auto

72.2 21%

Teleop

188.4 56%

Endgame

78.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score475.9pts

Blue projected score338pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.8
Score range: 263–551
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 777 vs event baseline 418.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668.6Season APEX628.1

63.4Auto72.2

300.8Teleop188.4

96.6Endgame78.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	79
teleop	226	251
endgame	56	112
foul	0	0
total	335	442

Result

Final score

335 – 442

Prediction missed · off by 122.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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