Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

320.42 – 342.35

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

425 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 193.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.5 ±9.8

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 189.06Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 69.69Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 61.67Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695.1 ±13.9

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 189.06Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11244Avrasya Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 69.69Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 83.6Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 6911, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4322, 6911, 5577

Auto

58.9 18%

Teleop

168.2 52%

Endgame

94.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 931, 11244, 3544

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.4 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 931, 11244, 3544

Auto

63.3 19%

Teleop

193.2 57%

Endgame

85.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score320.4pts

Blue projected score342.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.9
Score range: 243–419
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 426.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.5Season APEX695.1

58.9Auto63.3

168.2Teleop193.2

94.4Endgame85.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	31
teleop	252	22
endgame	79	7
foul	35	0
total	425	60

Result

Final score

425 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 193.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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