Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

198.43 – 288.98

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

342 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 141.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.2 ±9.3

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 119.92Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 107.73Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX -29.22Rank 50Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 742.7 ±9.8

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 128.99Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 54.85Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 105.14Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 111, 5181, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.4 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 111, 5181, 10991

Auto

46.6 23%

Teleop

127.6 64%

Endgame

25.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10980, 4469, 4087

/ 100 compat

Projected

289 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 10980, 4469, 4087

Auto

32.2 11%

Teleop

152.1 54%

Endgame

99.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score198.4pts

Blue projected score289pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.6
Score range: 121–366
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 771 vs event baseline 427.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.2Season APEX742.7

46.6Auto32.2

127.6Teleop152.1

25.3Endgame99.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	96
teleop	206	242
endgame	92	91
foul	0	0
total	342	429

Result

Final score

342 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 141.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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