Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

350.7 – 186.22

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

544 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 225 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 745.6 ±9.8

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 102.59Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 139.54Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 108.57Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.9 ±9.8

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 71.14Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX -38.64Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 153.72Rank 18Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4020, 7415, 2393

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.7 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4020, 7415, 2393

Auto

75.4 23%

Teleop

220.5 67%

Endgame

31.5 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4125, 1403, 8229

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4125, 1403, 8229

Auto

7.7 4%

Teleop

112.1 60%

Endgame

67.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.75 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score350.7pts

Blue projected score186.2pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 164.5
Score range: 108–429
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 987 vs event baseline 431.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

745.6Season APEX650.9

75.4Auto7.7

220.5Teleop112.1

31.5Endgame67.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	115	58
teleop	270	218
endgame	124	162
foul	35	5
total	544	443

Result

Final score

544 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 225 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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