Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.28 – 293.59

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

724 – 737

Prediction correct · off by 456.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 985.2 ±12.7

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 200.3Rank 14Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 31.77Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 22.21Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 872 ±9.3

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 70.17Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 92.64Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1506Metal Muscle

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 130.78Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8159, 5895, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.3 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 8159, 5895, 1690

Auto

6.5 3%

Teleop

140.8 57%

Endgame

100.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3931, 7769, 1506

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.6 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3931, 7769, 1506

Auto

43.2 16%

Teleop

169.5 61%

Endgame

63.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.66 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score254.3pts

Blue projected score293.6pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 179–369
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1461 vs event baseline 416.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

985.2Season APEX872

6.5Auto43.2

140.8Teleop169.5

100.1Endgame63.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	142	143
teleop	417	407
endgame	165	177
foul	0	10
total	724	737

Result

Final score

724 – 737

Prediction correct · off by 456.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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