Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

360.25 – 498.94

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

405 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 92.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 623.1 ±8.7

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 142.57Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 127.14Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 90.54Rank 45Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 768.8 ±8.7

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 185.42Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 194.92Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 118.6Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9572, 2582, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.3 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 9572, 2582, 11242

Auto

78.3 22%

Teleop

177.9 50%

Endgame

98.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5895, 2813, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

498.9 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5895, 2813, 7915

Auto

88.9 18%

Teleop

257.1 53%

Endgame

143.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score360.3pts

Blue projected score498.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.7
Score range: 283–576
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 764 vs event baseline 425.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

623.1Season APEX768.8

78.3Auto88.9

177.9Teleop257.1

98.7Endgame143.4

129Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	46
teleop	205	226
endgame	89	87
foul	20	0
total	405	359

Result

Final score

405 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 92.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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