Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

429.44 – 321.66

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

458 – 518

Prediction missed · off by 112.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.7 ±11

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 132.01Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 151.14Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 146.29Rank 32Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 848.7 ±14.5

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 57.29Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2231OnyxTronix

Season APEX 365.5Event APEX 146.29Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 118.08Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3937, 5653, 3243

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.4 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3937, 5653, 3243

Auto

78.4 20%

Teleop

238.7 60%

Endgame

82.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7915, 2231, 6429

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.7 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 7915, 2231, 6429

Auto

54.8 18%

Teleop

205.3 67%

Endgame

47.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score429.4pts

Blue projected score321.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.8
Score range: 248–503
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 976 vs event baseline 413.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.7Season APEX848.7

78.4Auto54.8

238.7Teleop205.3

82.6Endgame47.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	103
teleop	269	300
endgame	123	115
foul	20	0
total	458	518

Result

Final score

458 – 518

Prediction missed · off by 112.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.