Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.9 – 60.99

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

512 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 104.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741 ±8.8

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 47.71Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 136.86Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 122.33Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391 ±10.5

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 47.71Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX -1.08Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 14.36Rank 68Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 9496, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3082, 9496, 2468

Auto

62.8 21%

Teleop

168.2 55%

Endgame

73.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5705, 11214, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 5705, 11214, 16

Auto

16.3 26%

Teleop

35.5 57%

Endgame

10.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score306.9pts

Blue projected score61pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 245.9
Score range: -15–383
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 421.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741Season APEX391

62.8Auto16.3

168.2Teleop35.5

73.9Endgame10.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	17
teleop	256	45
endgame	137	2
foul	5	0
total	512	64

Result

Final score

512 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 104.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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