Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

380.86 – 258.93

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

317 – 414

Prediction missed · off by 109.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.6 ±10.5

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 118.86Rank 64Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 132Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 130Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 699.6 ±9.3

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 17.5Rank 46Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7183W.A.R.

Season APEX 278.7Event APEX 109.43Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 132Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 364, 1023, 6985

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.9 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 364, 1023, 6985

Auto

80.6 22%

Teleop

209.6 57%

Endgame

79.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 7183, 1391

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.9 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6665, 7183, 1391

Auto

48.2 19%

Teleop

149.2 58%

Endgame

59.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score380.9pts

Blue projected score258.9pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.9
Score range: 183–457
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 731 vs event baseline 425.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.6Season APEX699.6

80.6Auto48.2

209.6Teleop149.2

79.9Endgame59.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	50
teleop	170	280
endgame	41	79
foul	0	5
total	317	414

Result

Final score

317 – 414

Prediction missed · off by 109.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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