Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

373.14 – 180.42

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

492 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 183.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.1 ±9.3

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 124Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 133.43Rank 39Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 115.71Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 720.9 ±9.9

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 142.86Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 41.71Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX -4.15Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8858, 2556, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.1 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 8858, 2556, 9572

Auto

72.9 20%

Teleop

206.0 56%

Endgame

87.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3501, 6487, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 3501, 6487, 4450

Auto

52.3 29%

Teleop

120.8 66%

Endgame

9.2 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score373.1pts

Blue projected score180.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.7
Score range: 106–447
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 921 vs event baseline 413.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.1Season APEX720.9

72.9Auto52.3

206Teleop120.8

87.1Endgame9.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	61
teleop	262	205
endgame	122	163
foul	0	0
total	492	429

Result

Final score

492 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 183.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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