Qualification · Qualification 121

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

383.4 – 464.91

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

421 – 358

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 632.3 ±11

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 105.11Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 218.52Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 59.77Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 731.8 ±9.3

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 192.83Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 202.06Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 70.02Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3753, 5913, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.4 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 3753, 5913, 4125

Auto

73.5 19%

Teleop

206.5 53%

Endgame

111.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2813, 3937, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.9 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2813, 3937, 5181

Auto

104.3 23%

Teleop

249.8 54%

Endgame

108.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score383.4pts

Blue projected score464.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.5
Score range: 310–538
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 779 vs event baseline 408.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

632.3Season APEX731.8

73.5Auto104.3

206.5Teleop249.8

111.1Endgame108.9

118Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	112
teleop	160	95
endgame	100	136
foul	105	15
total	421	358

Result

Final score

421 – 358

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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