Qualification · Qualification 120

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

343.18 – 357.62

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

199 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 799.7 ±11.2

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 146.18Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

931Perpetual Chaos

Season APEX 286.1Event APEX 80.22Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 116.78Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.6 ±9.8

51Wings of Fire

Season APEX 237Event APEX 137.12Rank 34Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 159.09Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 61.41Rank 20Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4655, 931, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.2 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4655, 931, 1403

Auto

82.2 24%

Teleop

202.1 60%

Endgame

54.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 51, 1756, 11417

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.6 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 51, 1756, 11417

Auto

82.8 25%

Teleop

179.7 54%

Endgame

72.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score343.2pts

Blue projected score357.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.4
Score range: 269–432
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 409.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

799.7Season APEX626.6

82.2Auto82.8

202.1Teleop179.7

54.1Endgame72.5

83Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	80
teleop	58	164
endgame	27	56
foul	0	35
total	199	335

Result

Final score

199 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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