Qualification · Qualification 119

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

428.66 – 73.24

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 89.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 735.8 ±11.2

8069Super Hornets

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 74.9Rank 69Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 123.92Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 229.84Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.8 ±9.3

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX -15.34Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 18.58Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 70Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8069, 8858, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

428.7 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 8069, 8858, 2491

Auto

73.5 18%

Teleop

204.0 49%

Endgame

138.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3082, 1533, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.2 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3082, 1533, 6201

Auto

29.3 49%

Teleop

7.3 12%

Endgame

22.6 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score428.7pts

Blue projected score73.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 355.4
Score range: -1–503
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 411.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

735.8Season APEX462.8

73.5Auto29.3

204Teleop7.3

138.8Endgame22.6

87Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	19
teleop	163	2
endgame	86	0
foul	0	0
total	302	21

Result

Final score

302 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 89.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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