Qualification · Qualification 118

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

482.66 – 590.36

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

607 – 553

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 891.7 ±12.7

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 76.43Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 110.42Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1690Orbit

Season APEX 442.4Event APEX 295.81Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 764.3 ±8.8

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 138.39Rank 51Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 130.18Rank 68Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 321.79Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4087, 2590, 1690

/ 100 compat

Projected

482.7 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4087, 2590, 1690

Auto

128.0 26%

Teleop

246.2 50%

Endgame

116.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4450, 16, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

590.4 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4450, 16, 1768

Auto

88.2 15%

Teleop

331.1 58%

Endgame

150.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score482.7pts

Blue projected score590.4pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.7
Score range: 409–664
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1160 vs event baseline 409.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

891.7Season APEX764.3

128Auto88.2

246.2Teleop331.1

116.4Endgame150.4

92Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	157	30
teleop	298	267
endgame	152	211
foul	0	45
total	607	553

Result

Final score

607 – 553

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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