Qualification · Qualification 117

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

415.26 – 476.46

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

476 – 381

Prediction missed · off by 78.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 681.2 ±9.3

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 158.8Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 137.7Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 118.76Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 647 ±10.5

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 159.69Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 143.44Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2054Tech Vikes

Season APEX 244.3Event APEX 173.33Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1391, 3931, 2582

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.3 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1391, 3931, 2582

Auto

74.2 18%

Teleop

223.0 55%

Endgame

107.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2393, 5653, 2054

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.5 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2393, 5653, 2054

Auto

75.6 16%

Teleop

266.9 57%

Endgame

123.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score415.3pts

Blue projected score476.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.2
Score range: 341–550
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 857 vs event baseline 409.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

681.2Season APEX647

74.2Auto75.6

223Teleop266.9

107.9Endgame123.7

117Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	80
teleop	256	222
endgame	152	79
foul	5	0
total	476	381

Result

Final score

476 – 381

Prediction missed · off by 78.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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