Qualification · Qualification 116

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

551.5 – 407.29

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

561 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 834.1 ±10.2

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 292.8Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3544Spartiates

Season APEX 242Event APEX 73.99Rank 61Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 184.71Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.1 ±9.8

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 166.2Rank 18Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 181.35Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 59.74Rank 64Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9496, 3544, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

551.5 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9496, 3544, 449

Auto

97.1 18%

Teleop

279.8 53%

Endgame

150.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8229, 9572, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.3 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 8229, 9572, 364

Auto

91.2 23%

Teleop

203.2 51%

Endgame

107.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.54 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score551.5pts

Blue projected score407.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.2
Score range: 333–626
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1051 vs event baseline 408.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

834.1Season APEX621.1

97.1Auto91.2

279.8Teleop203.2

150.2Endgame107.9

63Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	158	109
teleop	282	215
endgame	111	161
foul	10	5
total	561	490

Result

Final score

561 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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