Qualification · Qualification 115

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.07 – 236.25

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 93.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 683 ±9.9

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 208.84Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 118.34Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6487Clockwork Knights

Season APEX 187.2Event APEX 66.89Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.3 ±9.3

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 15.02Rank 50Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 57.77Rank 55Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 163.46Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 4766, 6487

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.1 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 484, 4766, 6487

Auto

68.7 17%

Teleop

219.1 55%

Endgame

107.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10991, 5577, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 10991, 5577, 5895

Auto

55.9 23%

Teleop

155.5 64%

Endgame

30.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score394.1pts

Blue projected score236.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 157.8
Score range: 162–468
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 818 vs event baseline 408.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

683Season APEX610.3

68.7Auto55.9

219.1Teleop155.5

107.3Endgame30.2

84Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	97
teleop	242	163
endgame	119	85
foul	0	25
total	448	370

Result

Final score

448 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 93.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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