Qualification · Qualification 111

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

383.09 – 407.87

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

280 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626.5 ±9.3

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 168.95Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 132.6Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 81.54Rank 46Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 754.9 ±12.4

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 55.24Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 100.85Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 251.78Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1756, 8858, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.1 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1756, 8858, 6665

Auto

57.6 16%

Teleop

233.9 63%

Endgame

79.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10034, 3753, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.9 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 10034, 3753, 2468

Auto

75.9 20%

Teleop

205.2 53%

Endgame

106.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score383.1pts

Blue projected score407.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.8
Score range: 309–482
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 678 vs event baseline 409.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626.5Season APEX754.9

57.6Auto75.9

233.9Teleop205.2

79.6Endgame106.2

90Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	79
teleop	172	160
endgame	41	154
foul	20	5
total	280	398

Result

Final score

280 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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